AGP Executive Report

Energy Resilience: Russian strikes left nearly 300,000 Ukrainian households without power, prompting hourly outages on Nov. 1. Zelensky says more generators and energy equipment from Türkiye are expected next week, alongside planned energy and infrastructure projects. Trade & Logistics: Zelensky and Erdoğan agreed to work on keeping a Black Sea grain corridor operational, as Türkiye warned attacks on civilian vessels threaten shipping. Industrial Targets: Ukrainian forces said strikes damaged workshops and a warehouse at Russia’s Kamensky rocket-fuel plant; a drone attack also sparked a fire at a Ufa refinery. Defence Procurement: The U.S. approved a potential $2.1 billion, allied-funded sale of 500 Patriot missiles, but Zelensky warned deliveries could take years.

Energy Disruption: Russian strikes left about 280,000 households without power across the Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, damaging power plants, substations and gas infrastructure. Dnipro’s public transport was also disrupted as repair crews worked to restore supply. Air Defense: Washington approved a $2.1 billion sale of 500 Patriot interceptors, funded by European allies and Canada, but reported delivery timelines extend beyond 2030. President Volodymyr Zelensky is urging partners to transfer missiles from existing stockpiles ahead of winter. Defense Production: Ukraine’s defense minister and military chief agreed to expand domestic weapons production and strengthen supply to the armed forces. Separately, Ukrainian drones and Neptune missiles struck Russia’s Kamensky Combine, damaging four workshops at a plant that makes rocket fuel. Oil and Shipping: Ukraine has resumed strikes on Russian refineries after a two-week pause, with attacks reported in Ufa and Samara. Zelensky’s talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are also expected to address Black Sea shipping and maritime security.

Energy Infrastructure: Russian strikes knocked out power at critical facilities in Kyiv and disrupted water pressure, while attacks across several regions have left hundreds of thousands without electricity. Air Defence: The US approved a potential $2.1 billion sale of 500 Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, funded by Canada, Germany, Norway and EU-backed financing; Kyiv is pressing for faster delivery as winter strikes continue. Defence Industry: The EU’s proposed 2027 loan plan earmarks €31.7 billion for defence and €13.3 billion for budget support. Ukrainian defence firms also signed $5.4 million in subsidised equipment-leasing deals to expand production capacity. Transport Resilience: Kyiv has begun building backup crossings over the Dnipro after Russian attacks on bridges, with the first expected to be operational early next year. Economic Outlook: The National Bank forecasts GDP to contract 0.4% in 2026, with inflation at 12.5%, as strikes weigh on economic activity.

Energy and Industry: Russian strikes left consumers without power in Kyiv and four regions, with restrictions also imposed on industrial users as repairs continue. Defense Technology: Ukraine has opened Brave1 grant competitions for air-to-air missiles and domestically made radars, aiming to counter aerial threats and reduce the cost of intercepting jet-powered drones. Missile Production: Destinus says it is producing nearly 300 Ruta cruise missiles a month and has made more than 1,750; the company expects its engine capacity to meet European demand, including Ukrainian orders, by 2027. Sanctions and Space: Kyiv sanctioned companies and individuals developing Russia’s Rassvet satellite network, alongside 39 shadow-fleet vessels, targeting technology and supply chains that could support Russian military communications. Logistics: Nova Poshta’s nine-month net profit rose 70% to UAH 2.63 billion, though it recorded a third-quarter loss after Russian shelling intensified. Economic Outlook: The National Bank forecasts Ukraine’s GDP will contract 0.4% in 2026, with inflation at 12.5%.

Energy Trade: Moldova bought 2 million cubic meters of Ukrainian gas below spot-market prices, and plans to seek larger volumes before private export permissions expire on Nov. 30. Energy Resilience: Azerbaijan delivered $1.5 million in transformers, cables and switchgear to Ukraine; meanwhile, Russian refineries boosted crude processing by 25% after Ukrainian strikes paused. Industrial Outlook: The National Bank forecasts Ukraine’s GDP will shrink 0.4% in 2026 as attacks weigh on activity, while steel production fell 80% in September. Defence Innovation: Ukraine and NATO’s DIANA signed a first-of-its-kind agreement to help Ukrainian innovators test technologies and connect with NATO expertise, opening a route to scale battlefield-tested products.

Transport and Industry: A Russian drone strike on Dnipro’s railway station killed 14 people, disrupting a vital passenger network; a separate strike on an industrial site in the city injured one. Power Generation: Ukrnafta will receive nearly UAH 939 million from a Finnish-Ukrainian fund to build four gas-fired plants in western Ukraine, adding 60 MW to the grid. Energy Resilience: Azerbaijan sent Ukraine $1.47 million in equipment, including nine transformers and 186 kilometres of power cable. Economic Outlook: The National Bank now forecasts GDP will shrink 0.4% in 2026, citing attacks on ports, factories and logistics; mining and metallurgy have suffered the heaviest losses. Agriculture: Kernel is working with NASA Harvest and international partners on satellite monitoring to verify crop-rotation practices, potentially helping producers secure financing and meet EU market requirements.

Drone Threat: Ukrainian intelligence says Russia is building a launch site near Millerovo that could support up to 100 jet-powered attack drones a day. Energy & Investment: The Netherlands pledged €1.2 billion in non-military aid over three years, including funds for urgent energy repairs and equipment, as Ukraine seeks partners in energy, agriculture and IT. Digital Infrastructure: Kyivstar agreed to buy cloud provider GigaCloud for nearly $50 million, expanding domestic enterprise cloud services. Defense Technology: A Ukrainian unit says an AI-guided ground robot completed a 19-kilometre supply mission largely on its own, a potential step toward safer frontline logistics. Agriculture: Ukraine has harvested 41.7 million tonnes of grain and 16.9 million tonnes of oilseeds, up 7.3% and 11.7% year on year. Industrial Damage: A Russian strike ignited a fire at an industrial enterprise in Dnipro and injured one worker.

Defense Supply Chains: Ukraine says it struck a Russian plant making batteries for missiles and guided bombs, and reported damage to other missile-component factories. Military Logistics: Azov says its drones have hit more than 100 Russian trains carrying fuel and other supplies to the front. Defense Manufacturing: Drone startup Swarmer is acquiring Vataga’s engineering IP and bringing its hardware team onboard; Canadian firm 49North and Ukraine’s UNWAVE also agreed to explore joint counter-drone production. Digital Infrastructure: Kyivstar agreed to acquire cloud provider GigaCloud for about $50 million, while Ukraine’s first OBRIA communications satellite is now operating in orbit. Energy Investment: Naftogaz and the U.S. State Department signed a framework to bring American companies into Ukrainian hydrocarbon projects. Winter Resilience: The Netherlands pledged €1.2 billion in non-military aid over three years, including energy and water support; Norway also allocated about $54 million for Ukraine’s energy sector. Steel Operations: Metinvest says it plans four months ahead and reviews production capacity monthly as attacks and transport risks reshape its business outlook.

Energy Resilience: Russia launched more than 100 ballistic missiles at Kyiv and its region in two weeks, striking energy and logistics infrastructure; Ukraine introduced power limits as Norway pledged nearly €50 million for grid repairs ahead of winter. A UN inquiry says Russian attacks on the energy system amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. Digital Infrastructure: Kyivstar agreed to buy cloud provider GigaCloud for up to $50 million, adding cloud and cybersecurity services for businesses and public institutions. Sovereign Communications: Ukraine’s first OBRIA test satellite is operating in orbit, a step toward an independent communications network developed by HIMERA and Denmark’s GomSpace. Industry Policy: The government is developing an industrial strategy through 2030 and has extended 15% compensation for Ukrainian-made industrial equipment. Ukraine has also joined NATO’s procurement agency partnership, opening new routes for its defence manufacturers to access alliance contracts.

Infrastructure & Energy: Russian strikes hit Kyiv’s South Bridge and targeted transport and logistics infrastructure. Norway pledged $54 million in energy support ahead of winter, while Vodafone Ukraine plans solar systems at 400 more base stations, bringing its total to 500. Defence Industry: The EU approved €4.7 billion in reimbursements for military aid to Ukraine, plus €230 million for training. Canadian firm 49North and Ukrainian manufacturer UNWAVE signed an agreement to pursue joint counter-drone production and support. Industrial Investment: Ukraine extended 15% compensation for domestically made industrial equipment and began developing an industrial strategy through 2030. Moldova also invited Ukrainian companies to use it as a production and logistics base for reaching Romania and the EU.

Energy Security: A UN-backed inquiry says Russia’s deliberate attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity, after outages left millions without power and heat. Kyiv was also hit by Russian strikes, killing at least one person. Industrial Policy: Ukraine extended 15% compensation for locally made industrial equipment and is developing an industrial strategy through 2030. Regional Links: Ukraine and Moldova signed a military-technical cooperation agreement and agreed to advance a power-line project that could add 500 MW of electricity exchange capacity. The countries also discussed transport corridors for Ukrainian goods and closer energy cooperation. Agriculture and Logistics: Kernel’s grain exports fell 54% as attacks disrupted port logistics, underscoring the importance of safer Black Sea routes and alternative export corridors. Business Expansion: Moldova offered to help Ukrainian companies reach Romanian and EU markets through logistics routes and production platforms.

Defence Industry: Germany is preparing to buy Ukrainian-made Bars cruise missiles for testing, with a larger order possible if trials succeed—a potential export milestone for Ukraine’s weapons makers. Kyiv is also discussing oversight of nearly €60 billion in EU-backed defence funding, including support for drone and missile production. Energy and Connectivity: Ukraine’s General Staff says Starshield speed restrictions have been lifted, restoring high-speed links used by military systems. Zelenskyy says approval for Patriot and NASAMS missiles is still pending after nearly a month. Aviation: Ukraine is shifting toward Western-style fighter wings, with its first F-16 wing established and bases being prepared to support Gripen aircraft. Business Resilience: Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky urged companies to plan backup production sites and suppliers, citing more than $7.7 billion in damage from Russian attacks. Regulation: The full launch of e-Excise tracking for alcohol and tobacco has been delayed until July 1, 2027, giving businesses more time to prepare.

Power and Grid: Russian strikes have damaged energy facilities, prompting outage schedules on Oct. 26 and limits on industrial electricity use. Kyiv is also targeting more than 1.5 GW of additional thermal capacity, including backup boiler houses, to shore up winter heat supplies. Gas Market: Ukraine’s partial reopening of private gas exports could attract production investment. Producers can export up to 15% of eligible output, and a recent auction sold 12.75 million cubic metres at prices well above Ukraine’s domestic market. Defense Industry: Ukraine’s entry into NATO’s procurement partnership opens access to Alliance contracts and could make weapons and ammunition purchases faster and cheaper for local firms. Industrial Tech: Kyiv-based CODE380 has developed a combat-tested detector that can intercept Russian drone video feeds, giving Ukrainian forces a live view of what the aircraft are filming.

Industrial Supply Chains: Ukrainian strikes reportedly hit Russia’s AVISMA titanium plant, a major supplier to military aircraft and missile makers, and the Energia battery plant, which supplies Russian weapons systems. Damage at both sites remains unclear; Perm officials reported five workers injured and minor damage at an industrial facility. Satellite Communications: Starlink and Starshield speeds have been restored in Ukraine after restrictions disrupted service. Elon Musk accused Ukraine of breaching Starlink’s terms; Ukrainian officials dispute the claim. The dispute underscores the country’s reliance on privately operated communications for frontline logistics and operations. Defense Technology and Energy: Ukrainian firm F-Drones is developing a jet-powered interceptor priced at about $5,000–$7,000 to counter fast Russian attack drones. Separately, Russian overnight strikes damaged energy infrastructure in Zhytomyr region, sharpening concerns ahead of winter.

Satellite Connectivity: Starlink and military-grade Starshield speeds have returned to pre-restriction levels, Kyiv says, restoring capacity for frontline logistics and drone operations. Elon Musk says Ukraine violated Starlink’s terms; the dispute highlights the risks of relying on privately controlled communications. Industrial Targets: Ukraine says it struck Russia’s Proton-Electrotex missile-components plant and Tolyatti’s synthetic-rubber facility; separate reports say drones hit Omsk’s petrochemical plant and an Ozon logistics hub. Defence Industry: Ukraine has joined NATO’s procurement partnership, opening access to Alliance contracts, while Germany is discussing purchases of Ukrainian jet-powered drones. Energy Security: Russian attacks are driving emergency power cuts as Ukraine prepares for winter. Kyiv has launched 85 MW of generation, and Ukraine has begun the process of joining the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency.

Military Connectivity: Ukraine says Starlink and Starshield links are stable again at speeds above 400 km/h, restoring support for drone operations, frontline logistics and communications after restrictions disrupted missions. Defence Production: Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara says the government is working on predictable procurement and expanding production capacity, with exports considered only after the military’s needs are met. Croatian drone maker ORQA and Ukraine’s General Cherry are also building an underground facility for drone components. Drone Exports: Germany is discussing a purchase of Ukrainian-made Bars jet-powered drones, following a deal to jointly produce them. Transport Links: Ukraine and Romania plan to advance rail capacity, river transport and freight handling, while discussing wider defence and energy cooperation. Russian Supply Chains: Kyiv imposed sanctions on people and companies linked to Russian missile and weapons production. Ukrainian forces also reported strikes on the Proton-Elektrotex electronics plant and Tolyattikauchuk chemical plant, which Kyiv says supply Russia’s weapons industry.